Pakistan’s Airspace Ban: Who Will Bleed More — India or Pakistan?

Last week, as the world watched in shock over the Pakistan-backed terror attack on Pahalgam, Kashmir, tensions between the two neighbors escalated again. In retaliation — or perhaps as a political stunt — Pakistan announced it was closing its airspace to Indian flights.

At first glance, this sounds like a big blow to India. After all, one of the most critical international air corridors for Indian airlines runs straight through Pakistani skies, giving the fastest routes to West Asia and Europe. Without it, Indian flights now must take detours, leading to longer flight times, more fuel consumption, higher ticket prices, and logistical headaches.

But here’s the twist: Pakistan’s airspace ban may hurt Pakistan more than India.

💰 The Cost of Closed Skies

Flying over another country is never free. Airlines pay overflight fees, navigation charges, and route permissions, amounting to hundreds or even thousands of dollars per flight.

Let’s break it down:

• A Boeing 737 pays Pakistan about $580 per overflight.
• Bigger jets pay between $1,200 to $1,500 per flight.
• Before this ban, around 100 Indian flights passed through Pakistani airspace daily.

👉 Daily revenue Pakistan was making? Easily over $100,000 per day.

That’s over ₹83 lakh daily losses just from Indian overflights.

✈️ A History of Self-Inflicted Pain

This isn’t the first time Pakistan has done this.
Back in 2019, after the Balakot airstrikes, Pakistan shut its skies for five months. Reports say the country lost around $100 million in that period, bleeding precious foreign exchange reserves.

And let’s not forget — Pakistan is currently facing an economic crisis. Its foreign reserves are running dry, inflation is skyrocketing, and the country is under constant pressure from the IMF and international lenders.

🔄 What If India Hits Back?

India is now considering a tit-for-tat move — closing its own airspace to Pakistani airlines.

Why does this matter?

• Pakistani carriers use Indian skies to fly eastward — to Southeast Asia, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and beyond.
• Without Indian airspace, they’ll be forced to reroute via China or Sri Lanka, increasing their fuel costs, flight times, and operational expenses.

And here’s the brutal truth:
👉 India has options — yes, longer routes, but manageable.
👉 Pakistan has no room to maneuver — it cannot afford to lose even small revenue streams, let alone spend more dollars it doesn’t have.

🌍 The Bigger Picture

India’s airline market is one of the largest and fastest-growing in the world. It is too big to isolate, with major players like IndiGo, Air India, Vistara, and others connecting to global hubs.

Pakistan, on the other hand, has a fragile, shrinking airline industry and an economy on the edge of collapse. It simply cannot afford to play these risky games for long.

Every time Pakistan shuts its skies, it weakens itself, draining much-needed revenue and worsening its diplomatic position.

🔥 Who’s Checkmating Whom?

Pakistan’s airspace ban after the Pahalgam terror incident may look like a strong-arm move. But in reality, it’s more like a self-inflicted wound.

India can absorb higher costs; Pakistan cannot print dollars.
India has diplomatic and economic weight; Pakistan is grappling with internal chaos.

In the end, the more Pakistan pushes, the more it risks cornering itself — politically, economically, and diplomatically.

🚫 Why hasn’t India shut its skies to Pakistan (yet)?

Despite Pakistan’s repeated airspace bans on India, India has so far held back from doing the same in return. There are several reasons:

🛑 1️⃣ India’s Global Image

India wants to project itself as:

• A mature, responsible global power.
• A country that follows international aviation rules and doesn’t escalate tension unnecessarily.

If India bans Pakistani flights, it looks like a tit-for-tat move, something mature nations often avoid — especially when they’re trying to attract global investors, airlines, and diplomatic partnerships.

💸 2️⃣ Minimal Financial Impact on Pakistan

Currently, only a handful of Pakistani flights actually use Indian airspace — mainly flights heading east to Southeast Asia or China.
The number of flights is small compared to the 100+ Indian flights crossing Pakistan daily.

So India’s potential gains (in terms of hurting Pakistan) are limited, but the diplomatic and political fallout could be big.

✈️ 3️⃣ International Aviation Rules

Global air traffic operates under International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) rules, which promote open skies, even during diplomatic tensions.
India generally prefers to follow these norms, using them as a diplomatic card to show that Pakistan is the one breaking international aviation etiquette, not India.

🌍 4️⃣ Avoiding Trouble for Third Countries

When India bans Pakistani flights, it doesn’t just affect Pakistan. It affects third-country passengers and airlines that connect via Pakistan.
India often prefers to avoid disrupting global aviation routes unnecessarily.

🔥 But Will India Always Stay Silent?

Not necessarily.

If tensions escalate further — especially after terror attacks like the one on Pahalgam — India may impose an airspace ban to:

• Send a strong political signal.
• Increase economic pressure.
• Force Pakistan to rethink its policies.

But right now, India is weighing costs vs. benefits, and it seems the diplomatic benefit of taking the high ground outweighs the small financial hit Pakistan would face.

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