Why Everyone Wants Iran to Change – And What Comes Next

The geopolitical chessboard of West Asia has always been hot, but the pieces are now trembling.

🎯 Why the US and Israel Want Political Change in Iran

The U.S. and Israel have one recurring nightmare:
An anti-Western, ideologically rigid, nuclear-armed Iran with regional ambitions. And the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, represents exactly that.

Reasons they want a regime change:

• Iran backs anti-Israel militias like Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthis (Yemen), and various Iraqi and Syrian factions.
• Theocracy over democracy: The U.S. claims to support democratic ideals, but the real issue is Iran’s defiance of Western interests.
• Nuclear ambitions: Iran’s uranium enrichment program is one screw away from a nuclear warhead.
• Anti-American rhetoric: “Death to America” chants don’t go unnoticed.
• Oil power and OPEC independence: Iran doesn’t always play nice with Western oil markets.

In short, they don’t hate the Iranian people. They hate Iran’s current power structure — religiously hardlined, uncooperative, and anti-West.

📜 Historical Baggage: The 1953 Coup and the Shah’s Return

Let’s not pretend this tension is new.

• In 1953, the CIA and MI6 overthrew Iran’s elected PM Mohammad Mossadegh, who nationalized oil (bad for British oil interests).
• They reinstalled the Shah, a Western puppet monarch who ruled with an iron fist until the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
• After the Shah fled, Ayatollah Khomeini established a Shia theocracy — and ever since, Iran and the U.S. have been on different planets.

👑 What’s the Problem With the Current Supreme Leader?

Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989, controls:

• The military
• Foreign policy
• Judiciary
• Intelligence
• And through the Guardian Council, he even filters election candidates

This isn’t just one man in power — it’s a system where religion and politics are one. He’s the ultimate firewall against Western influence and internal liberalization.

From a Western (and Israeli) perspective, as long as Khamenei lives and rules, Iran won’t bend.

☢️ The Nuclear Hypocrisy: Israel Has Nukes, Iran Must Not?

Yes, the irony is loud.

Israel is widely believed to have 80–100 nuclear warheads. But it’s not a signatory to the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and never officially acknowledges its arsenal.

Meanwhile, Iran — an NPT signatory — is constantly told it must not even enrich uranium beyond 60%.

Why the double standard?

• Israel is seen as a “responsible ally” of the West.
• Iran is viewed as a “rogue state” — volatile, unpredictable, and vengeful.
• The fear: Iran would share nuclear tech or weapons with non-state actors.

🕋 Why Even Muslim Neighbours Don’t Want Iran to Go Nuclear

You’d think Muslim solidarity would unite the region. Nope.

Middle Eastern countries like:

• Saudi Arabia
• United Arab Emirates
• Jordan
• Bahrain

…all quietly (and sometimes openly) oppose Iran getting nukes.

Why?

• Sectarian rivalry: Iran is Shia. Most Gulf states are Sunni. The Shia-Sunni divide runs deep.
• Power balance: A nuclear Iran would become untouchable and embolden proxy wars.
• Fear of domino effect: If Iran gets nukes, Saudi will demand them. Then Egypt. Then Turkey. Boom — a nuclear Middle East.

🇺🇸 What Revenge Is the US Taking Against Iran?

It’s happening in slow motion:

• Economic sanctions that cripple Iran’s economy.
• Cyber warfare, like the Stuxnet virus (which targeted nuclear facilities).
• Assassinations — remember General Qasem Soleimani in 2020?
• Support to Israel’s strikes on Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon.

And now, military bases are surrounding Iran like it’s a chessboard trap.

🎭 Will Khamenei End Up Like Saddam?

That’s the question many whisper but few say aloud.

The US removed Saddam Hussein (Iraq) in 2003. The same fate for Iran’s supreme leader? Not so easy.

• Iran isn’t Iraq.
• It’s more unified, more powerful, and has real regional influence.
• Any direct attack would mean a prolonged war, possibly drawing in Russia, China, and inflaming the entire region.

But yes, covert regime change, cyberwar, internal unrest — all are ongoing strategies.

📰 What’s Happening Now – And What to Expect

What happened this week (up to June 2025):

• Trump sarcastically told reporters: “We may attack Iran, or maybe we won’t. Who knows?”
• Israeli airstrikes intensified in Syria and Lebanon, targeting Iranian bases.
• Gulf states held emergency security meetings.
• Iran warned of “unimaginable retaliation.”

Coming weeks:

• Possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facility (direct or proxy).
• Increased US naval movement in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Cyberattacks on Iranian power grids or missile systems.
• Iranian proxies could retaliate in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza.

🐉 Where Does China Stand?

China’s position is pure business:

• Iran is a strategic partner for its Belt and Road Initiative.
• China buys discounted Iranian oil.
• China helped broker peace between Iran and Saudi in 2023.

But will China intervene militarily? Unlikely.

Expect diplomatic deflection and calls for peace, but no real boots on the ground.

🐻 What About Russia?

Russia and Iran have grown closer due to:

• Shared isolation from the West
• Military cooperation in Syria
• Defense and arms trade

Russia could step in as a mediator if things get too heated, especially if its own energy markets are affected.

But if the U.S. invades? Russia might escalate in Ukraine or somewhere else to divide global attention.

🔮 How Will This All End?

The best-case scenario:

• China or Russia broker peace talks
• Iran accepts nuclear limits in exchange for sanctions relief
• U.S. and Israel back down from open war

The worst-case scenario:

• Israel strikes Iran.
• Iran responds via proxies or direct missile attacks.
• The Gulf burns.
• Oil prices soar.
• The world tips into chaos.

🧠 Final Thought:

When nuclear powers lecture others on peace while sitting on their own arsenal, it’s not diplomacy — it’s dominance disguised as morality.

And in this mess, Iran may not be innocent. But it’s certainly not the only player guilty of hypocrisy.

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