2026 Assembly Elections: Exit Polls Point to a Mixed Verdict Across Five States – My Grounded Predictions for May 4 Results

Voters in Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry have cast their ballots in April 2026, with results scheduled for May 4. Around seven major exit polls (including Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, and others) have emerged with varying projections, reflecting regional complexities rather than a uniform national wave.

While exit polls can miss the mark due to turnout variations, last-minute shifts, or sampling biases, a careful synthesis of the available data—factoring in incumbency, anti-incumbency trends, alliance strengths, and local issues like governance, welfare, and regional identity—allows for a reasoned forecast. Here’s my analysis and confident seat predictions for May 4, presented as the most likely outcomes based on converging trends.

Assam (126 seats): BJP-Led NDA Set for Clear Majority

Most exit polls project a comfortable win for the BJP-led NDA under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Projections suggest the NDA could secure 85–105 seats, comfortably above the majority mark (~64). The Congress-led alliance and regional players trail significantly.

Why this outcome?
Strong performance on development, infrastructure, and handling of border/identity issues has helped consolidate support. Anti-incumbency appears limited compared to other states. Sarma’s leadership has solidified the NDA’s base.

Prediction:
NDA wins with ~92–98 seats. Himanta Biswa Sarma returns as CM. The BJP strengthens its hold in the Northeast, boosting national morale ahead of 2029. Future looks stable for the party here, though it must deliver on jobs and flood control to sustain long-term dominance.

Kerala (140 seats): UDF Edges Out LDF for a Comeback

Exit polls show a tight contest, with the Congress-led UDF narrowly ahead of the ruling LDF (led by CPI(M)). Projections range from UDF at 65–80 seats to LDF slightly behind. The NDA (BJP) remains marginal, likely in single digits.

Analysis:
After two terms, LDF faces fatigue over issues like economic slowdown, unemployment, and governance complaints. UDF capitalizes on this with a promise of change and welfare focus. The bipolar nature of Kerala politics favors alternation.

Prediction:
UDF secures a slim majority with ~72–78 seats. A Congress-led government forms, with a senior Congress leader (possibly from the current opposition front) as Chief Minister. LDF’s decade-long rule ends due to anti-incumbency. For the Left, this signals a need for course correction on local issues; Congress gains a southern foothold but must prove effective governance to avoid quick reversal in future cycles.

Tamil Nadu (234 seats): DMK-Led Alliance Retains Power, TVK Emerges Strong

Projections vary, but most favor the DMK-led alliance returning to power, though with reduced margins in some scenarios. Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) shows a notable surge (some polls give it 90+ seats, others lower), splitting anti-incumbency votes. AIADMK-led NDA trails.

Key factors:
DMK benefits from welfare schemes and Dravidian politics, but faces criticism on corruption and family dominance. TVK disrupts the traditional DMK-AIADMK duopoly by appealing to youth and aspirational voters. AIADMK’s alliance with BJP yields limited gains in the state.

Prediction:
DMK+ wins with ~118–135 seats (simple majority ~118). M.K. Stalin likely continues as Chief Minister, possibly in a coalition or with adjustments. TVK establishes itself as a credible third force (~60–90 seats), reshaping Tamil politics long-term. DMK succeeds through organizational strength and alliances but must address governance deficits. AIADMK and BJP face challenges in breaking the Dravidian hold; TVK’s future hinges on converting star power into sustained cadre and policy depth.

West Bengal (294 seats): Tight Contest – BJP Likely to Edge or Force Hung House

This is the most watched and divided battle. Exit polls indicate a neck-and-neck fight between ruling TMC (Mamata Banerjee) and BJP, with some giving BJP an edge (146–175 seats in optimistic projections) and others pointing to a hung assembly. Left and Congress remain marginal.

Dynamics:
TMC battles strong anti-incumbency over alleged corruption, violence, women’s safety (e.g., RG Kar case fallout), and economic stagnation. BJP campaigns aggressively on these issues plus central schemes. High turnout in phases suggests polarized voting.

Prediction:
BJP makes historic inroads, emerging as the single largest party or close enough to form government with support (~150–170 seats), ending TMC’s long rule or forcing post-poll realignments. Mamata Banerjee’s TMC falls short of majority. If BJP forms government, a central or state BJP leader becomes CM. Success for BJP stems from persistent grassroots work and capitalizing on TMC’s governance lapses. TMC’s failure lies in over-reliance on populism without addressing core complaints. Long-term, this could mark BJP’s southern/eastern expansion if it governs effectively; TMC may regroup in opposition but risks further erosion without reforms.

Puducherry (30 seats): NDA Likely to Return

Most polls forecast continuity for the AINRC-led NDA alliance. With a small assembly, even minor shifts matter.

Prediction:
NDA retains power with 18–22 seats. N. Rangaswamy or a consensus NDA figure continues as CM (or equivalent). Stability on development and central ties helps. Congress-DMK alliance falls short. This reinforces NDA’s presence in Union Territories.

Overall Takeaways and Future Outlook

• BJP/NDA gains in Assam and potentially West Bengal/Puducherry highlight effective regional adaptation and anti-incumbency exploitation where present.
• Regional parties/alliances hold or return in Tamil Nadu (DMK) and Kerala (UDF), showing the resilience of local identities and welfare politics.
• Disruptors like TVK in TN signal evolving voter preferences toward new faces amid dissatisfaction with established players.
• Failures: Prolonged incumbency (LDF in Kerala, TMC in WB) breeds complacency on delivery. Alliances matter—fragmented opposition helps incumbents or rising challengers.
• Future: On May 4, expect surprises in close contests (Kerala, Bengal). Winners must prioritize jobs, infrastructure, and law & order. For national parties, these results preview 2029 dynamics: BJP eyes broader footprint, while Congress and regional forces test revival strategies.

These predictions align with the weight of exit poll consensus, adjusted for historical polling accuracy and on-ground realities. Politics is ultimately decided by actual votes—May 4 will reveal the precise mandate. Stay tuned for results and ground-level governance shifts that will shape India’s federal landscape.

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